India and the Nuclear Deal

Got this article from Nitin. Posting it as is.
~alok

With the all important vote of confidence behind us and the government winning it with a respectable margin, India is all set to go ahead with the nuclear deal with the US of A. While we have seen and heard many voices speaking eloquently, both for and against the deal, I would still like to add my humble inputs for the deal.
How the deal will help India cut down on its carbon emissions by reducing its dependency on coal and gas has been analyzed in detail by a number of experts. Instead, I want to take a different approach, a slightly longer term one. In my view, the deal is not just about immediate energy fulfillment and pollution. It is also about India choosing sides and doing so publicly in the rapidly changing political and military environment of the world. On one end of this balancing beam is the as yet lone super power of the world, the United States and on the other, the rapidly growing economy, China. China, already the most populous nation of the world will soon overtake the US in GDP. It already has great political clout on the world stage and is always looking for ways to enhance it. While the US has been antagonizing the Arabs by invading Iraq and its headstrong attitude towards Iran, China has been wooing them for oil and building strategic partnerships with the Muslim world. It is also aggressively modernizing its armed forces, being only the third country in the world to shoot down a satellite in space. This means that the US too is looking to recruit countries in its camp. India being one of the few countries on Earth, having the capability to stand up to China, both economically and militarily seems a very attractive choice. India also has a lot of other commonalities with the US. Both are democracies and staunch advocators of democracy. Indians like the openness of the American lifestyle and Americans are attracted to the Indian culture. Both countries have oodles of soft power. On the other hand, relations between India and China have always been strained. India, like China, has been growing rapidly. Both the economies have an exponentially increasing energy demand which cannot be met by the dwindling natural resources of the planet, be it coal, gas, petrol or even nuclear fuel. Hence the cat and mouse game of outmaneuvering the other party for gains in oilfields and nuclear supplies has already started with China many steps ahead in this game. This has also lead to China seeing India more as a rival than as a partner. China refuses to accept Indian sovereignty over Sikkim and Arunachal while India has a disjointed foreign policy over Tibet. China also carries a grudge against India for giving asylum to the Dalai Lama and his followers. China realizes that India partnered with the US can pose as a deterrent to the Chinese interests and is therefore trying to contain India by trying to encircle it with its own spheres of influence. It has always been a silent but strong advocator of Pakistan, supplying it with missile and nuclear technology. It has close ties with the military junta in Myanmar with Chinese bases on Burmese islands close to the Andaman and Nicobar. Recently it offered to help the Sri Lankan government fight the war against Tamil rebels by providing it with weapons with offensive capabilities against India’s policy of supplying weapons that are primarily defensive in nature. It is also seeking ways to increase its influence in Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Recent news of Chinese nuclear submarine bases is an example of continued Chinese interest in the India Ocean. On the other hand, India has recently risen up to the energy crunch facing the world and the growing Chinese influence in the oil rich areas of the planet. With these inputs in mind, the old Indian policy of non-alignment is no longer valid. With the advance of the information age and international trade, nations are becoming more and more dependent on each other. A market meltdown in US can have reverberations around the world. As Thomas Freidman put it in his book, the world is becoming flatter by the day. Hence, even if India and China do not have a direct confrontation, there are indirect ways of weakening each other and India is beginning to realize this. India is already a regional power with ambitions of becoming a world power and as such needs to be more engaging. Any country harboring such ambitions cannot afford to let major decisions be taken without its interests not being represented while those decisions are being taken. It is imperative that India take a stand and it has done just that by going ahead with the nuclear deal.
It is too early to say how things will turn out. However, it is clear that with the planet’s resources going down, the competition to have access to them will increase. With both India and China trying to come on-stage as great powers and with the USA not wanting to go out quietly and add to that the erstwhile super power contender Russia and the usual gamut of European nations and all I can say is that it will be interesting times ahead.